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安倍晋三のしたたかな戦略?

 支持率低下が取りざたされている安倍内閣。「美しい国」「戦後レジームからの脱却」という抽象的概念を掲げながら、具体的な主張が欠けるため、顔の見えない内閣とされ、タカ派的な保守思想の持ち主でありながら、総理就任後の行動は中庸に見えるため肩すかしをくらったタカ派の支持層の不満、劇場型の異端児小泉政治からの反動、郵政造反組の復党等々、地に足がついていないように見える安倍晋三だが、わたしは最近少し違った見方をしている。これらはすべて安倍晋三の巧みな戦略ではないかと。悪く言えば狡猾な手練手管ではないかと。

 狡猾という言葉は皮肉ではなく褒め言葉として使用している。失われた十年の日本の総理に欠けていて諸国の宰相が備えている要素がこの「狡猾さ」だからだ。一国の宰相たるもの、正直で真面目なだけでは全然ダメで、策士揃いの諸外国とわたりあうには「ずるさ」が求められるからである。

 話を元に戻すと安倍晋三の戦略であるが、一言で言えば名を捨て実を取る、とでもいおうか。例えば、靖国神社の参拝だが、おそらく安倍晋三は在任中に参拝しないだろう。では、安倍晋三の保守的思想の支持者は「腰が引けたのか」と責めるかもしれないが逆だとわたしは考える。簡単に言えば、靖国神社参拝はしょせん「名」に過ぎない。この行為を行うことによって、実務的に日本の何かが変わるかというと何も変わらない。一方で安倍晋三はいつのまにか防衛庁を防衛省に昇格させた。こちらは明らかに日本の安全保障戦略に影響を与える。公明党に骨を抜かれたとはいえ、教育基本法の改正にも手をつけた。道州制も具体的検討に入っている。従来のようにアメリカや北東アジアばかりを重視する外交戦略ではなく、ヨーロッパや他のアジア諸国との関係にも軸足を置きつつある。そして最大の目標は戦後誰も手を付けなかった憲法改正である。これらの政策、特に憲法改正に向けて具体的な前進があれば、安倍晋三の国家戦略的に、靖国参拝をするしないなどという「名」とは比べものにならない「実」をとることになる。つまり、ぱっと見た限りでは、就任前のタカ派的イメージはまるでなく、周囲とうまくやるだけの中庸路線に変わってしまいいい加減なスタンスに見えるが、実はその裏で着々と実務的に保守的政策を実行しているのである。これはしたたかである。策士である。安倍晋三は何をやりたいのかよく見えない、地味だ、顔が見えないなどとマスコミや国民が軽く見ている間に、少なくとも安全保障面でいつのまにか日本は大きな変化を遂げている(彼のいう戦後レジームから脱却している)ということになるのではないか。これは「実を捨て名を取った」小泉路線とはまったく異なるものだと思われる。

 わたしはブログを呼んで頂いている方々なら知っているとおり安全保障に関してはかなりタカ派であるから、安倍晋三がもしこのような羊の皮をかぶった狼であれば大歓迎である。しかしリベラル派の方々は、気をつけたほうが良いだろう(笑)。小泉純一郎のほうが過激で警戒すべき存在であるかのようなトーンでリベラル系メディアは安倍晋三を軽く見ているフシがあるが、わたしは逆だと思う。リベラル派が本当に警戒すべきは安倍晋三だとわたしは思うのである。いや、思いたいのかもしれない(笑)

 

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